Understanding Breast Cancer Risk
Everyone has some risk of developing breast cancer. For most women, the average lifetime risk is about 8–12%. However, some people have a higher risk—especially if they have certain family history patterns, dense breast tissue, or a genetic mutation.
Doctors use tools like the Tyrer-Cuzick model and the Gail model to estimate your personal risk. These models look at:
- Family history of breast cancer
- Personal health and reproductive history
- Breast density
- Hormone exposure over time
If your lifetime risk is 20–25% or higher, you are considered high risk and may benefit from additional screening and follow-up.
What Makes Someone High Risk?
You may be considered high risk if you:
- Have dense breast tissue (seen on a mammogram)
- Have a strong family history of breast or ovarian cancer
- Have had a breast biopsy showing certain high-risk cells
- Carry a known genetic mutation (like BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, etc.)
- Have a high risk score on the Gail or Tyrer-Cuzick model lifetime Risk of >20%
High-Risk Breast Cancer Screening Plan
If you are high risk, you will be followed closely in our office with:
- Visits every 6 months for a breast exam and review of your imaging
- Annual mammogram
- Annual MRI of the breast (in addition to the mammogram)
* Note: Breast ultrasound is not routinely used for high-risk screening if both mammogram and MRI are being done, even in women with dense breasts.
Medications to Lower Your Risk (Chemoprevention)
For women at increased risk (but without a genetic mutation), certain medications may help reduce the chance of developing breast cancer. These include:
- Tamoxifen or raloxifene (SERMs)
- Anastrozole or exemestane (aromatase inhibitors)
These options are based on your individual risk, age, and health history, and are typically recommended when your 5-year breast cancer risk is 1.7% or higher.
Genetic Testing and Inherited Breast Cancer Risk
About 5–10% of breast cancers are linked to inherited (genetic) mutations.
You may be offered genetic testing if you have:
- A personal or family history of breast, ovarian, or other related cancers
- A known family mutation (e.g., BRCA1 or BRCA2)
Genes That Increase Breast Cancer Risk Include:
- BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, TP53 (Li-Fraumeni), PTEN (Cowden), STK11 (Peutz-Jeghers), CDH1
- Other moderate-risk genes: ATM, CHEK2, NBN, NF1 and others
What Happens if You Have a Gene Mutation?
If you're found to have a pathogenic mutation, we will:
- Offer enhanced screening (e.g., annual mammogram + MRI)
- Discuss options like risk-reducing mastectomy +/- reconstruction and/or removal of ovaries
- Offer counseling for your family members, who may also be at risk
Surgical Options for Risk Reduction
- Risk-reducing mastectomy may be considered for those with BRCA1, BRCA2, PTEN, or TP53 mutations, especially if there is a strong family history.
- Preventive removal of ovaries and fallopian tubes (salpingo-oophorectomy) is recommended for BRCA1/2 carriers:
- BRCA1: Consider between ages 35–40
- BRCA2: Consider between ages 40–45
- This surgery may also reduce breast cancer risk in premenopausal women.
- BRCA1: Consider between ages 35–40
Key Takeaways
- Dense breasts, family history, and genetics all play a role in your personal risk.
- If you're at high risk, you'll need closer monitoring, often with both MRI and mammogram every year.
- Genetic testing can guide screening and prevention strategies—and help your family too.
- Not every gene mutation means surgery is needed. Each case is individualized based on your full risk profile.
Lifestyle Still Matters
You can also reduce your breast cancer risk by:
- Eating a balanced, healthy diet
- Staying physically active
- Maintaining a healthy weight
- Limiting alcohol and avoiding tobacco
Make an appointment with Dr. Coste to further determine your risk of breast cancer if you have a family history of breast cancer or would like to perform genetic testing.



